Decentralized Bitcoin trading, what not to ignore?

Bitcoin is currently consolidating within the $83,000 – $86,000 range, forming a daily range.

However, it’s important to keep in mind that the market remains bearish. To break through resistance zones, new positive catalysts would be needed to encourage investors to take long positions. For that to happen, the optimism sparked by Trump’s presidential victory would need to continue having an effect.

It will be crucial to monitor the area between $82,000 and $86,000, as it is not only a significant support zone but also a key pivot point to determine the price’s direction over the coming days.

BTC- Technical Analysis:

Pivot Level:

$85,000 – $86,000 (key zone around the current price)

Supports:

• $82,000 (first short-term support)

• $80,000 (recently tested zone)

• $78,000 (strong psychological support)

Resistances:

• $86,000 (first resistance before a new high)

• $88,000 – $91,000 (critical zone recently tested)

• $90,000 – $92,000 (next bullish extension)

RSI (Relative Strength Index):
In the buy zone, above 50.

Volumes:
24-hour trading volume is approximately $27.73 billion, measured across all platforms. This figure remains below the 7-day daily average of around $43.72 billion, suggesting more moderate participation and a lack of conviction in recent price movements.

20 & 50-Day Moving Averages:
The 20-day and 50-day moving averages are showing a bearish signal on the daily chart, with the 20-day MA (green) still below the 50-day MA (red). This configuration should be watched closely in the short term.

Trading Strategy

At the moment, trading Bitcoin to the upside based purely on technical analysis is possible, with a stop loss set around the $79,000 area. Scalpers and day traders can consider taking profits quickly by playing the bounces. For bearish traders, a break below $82,000 could offer a short-selling opportunity. In any case, caution is advised before entering a short-term long position, as long as Bitcoin does not manage to break above the key resistance zone between $86,000 and $90,000.

For a medium- or long-term strategy, if you believe in Bitcoin, the current price level could be an interesting entry point to allocate part of your capital. It’s always preferable to enter the market gradually, in multiple steps.
This is not financial advice—just a technical analysis of the price. Fundamental analysis should always be taken into account if you’re considering investing over the medium or long term.

Test it now

What’s true for Bitcoin is often true for other cryptocurrencies, with a few exceptions. This is the reasoning of a good trader, not a casino gambler, and I have nothing against the latter, but you just have to act according to who you are. If you gamble, then don’t be surprised if you lose; otherwise, the trader waits for his chances of winning to be maximized, which frankly isn’t the case at the moment.

Fundamental Analysis of Bitcoin (BTC)

1. Global Macroeconomic Context

Bitcoin is evolving in a complex macroeconomic environment:

• High interest rates in the U.S. and other developed economies continue to weigh on risk assets. While the Federal Reserve has hinted at pauses or cuts, inflation remains sticky in some regions.

• Growing distrust of fiat currencies: Concerns about U.S. sovereign debt, persistent inflationary policies, and declining trust in central banks are supporting Bitcoin’s image as a digital store of value.

Implication: Bitcoin is increasingly seen as an alternative safe haven, comparable to gold, and as a hedge against monetary debasement.

2. Institutional & Regulatory Landscape

✅ Supporting factors:

• Growing institutional adoption: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have been approved in several jurisdictions, including the U.S. since early 2024. This has led to massive liquidity inflows via institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Ark Invest.

• Increasing confidence in crypto infrastructure: U.S. regulators—under pressure from a pro-crypto Congress (over 260 supportive members)—are moving toward clearer legislation, encouraging traditional investors to enter the space.

❗ Challenges:

• Restrictive regulations in Europe: The MiCA framework imposes strict rules that may stifle innovation.

• Asian pressure: Countries like China remain hostile to mining and trading activities within their borders.

3. Bitcoin’s Role in Emerging Markets

• Bitcoin is increasingly used as a savings tool or remittance vehicle in countries with unstable economies like Argentina, Turkey, Nigeria, and Venezuela.

• Its decentralized and seizure-resistant nature makes it a vital financial tool in authoritarian regimes or sanctioned nations.

Noteworthy: The growing use of Lightning Network payment solutions is making BTC a viable daily payment method, with near-zero fees.

4. The 2024 Halving & Its Impacts

The 2024 halving reduced the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Historically, every halving has been followed by a prolonged bullish cycle over the next 12 to 18 months.

• Lower supply ➜ increased scarcity

• If demand stays constant or rises, buying pressure intensifies

Interesting: Analysts are comparing the current cycle to 2020–2021, expecting a post-halving accumulation phase followed by a potential explosive expansion in 2025.

5. Geopolitical Positioning

• Donald Trump, now re-elected as U.S. President, has taken a pro-Bitcoin stance, stating that “America should produce and own Bitcoin.”

• Countries like El Salvador, Central African Republic, and some Gulf States are actively exploring BTC as part of their monetary or reserve strategies.

Trend: Bitcoin is gradually becoming a geopolitical tool, even a strategic asset for nations.

6. Network Health & Security

• The hashrate (computational power securing the network) is at an all-time high, boosting security and resilience.

• No major bugs or critical failures since its creation in 2009—this enhances trust in the protocol.

• Bitcoin is now considered “the most secure digital network in history.”

✅ Conclusion: Why Bitcoin’s Fundamentals Remain Strong

• Limited supply (21 million) and predictable scarcity model

• Widespread adoption, both institutional and retail

• Improving regulation, especially in the U.S.

• Emerging geopolitical relevance

• Technological resilience with 15+ years of uninterrupted operation

➡️ In the long term, Bitcoin maintains solid fundamentals that may justify significant value appreciation, regardless of short-term volatility.

WARNING!

1. Trading with or without leverage is risky, you can lose everything you trade.

2. If you live in the USA or are American, you cannot trade on this platform

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